Canada election 2025 live: voting under way as Trump told to ‘stay out of our election’
Summary of the day so far
Canadians across the country are heading to the polls to cast their votes to decide who will form the next government. The two clear frontrunners are the Liberal party, led by Mark Carney, and the Conservative party, led by Pierre Poilievre. Here’s a recap of the latest developments:
Polls have opened nationwide with the last polls expected to close at 10pm EDT. Preliminary results are likely to come in tonight or early Tuesday morning.
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A record 7.3 million people had already cast their ballots in advance polls before election day, according to Elections Canada. Canada has 28.9 million eligible voters.
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The Liberals are the “clear frontrunners” of this election with a 83% chance of victory, according to Canada Sports Betting. The Conservative party is still trailing behind with a 23% chance of winning, it says.
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Donald Trump’s aggressive posture towards Canada has scrambled the stakes of the election. Until February, the Conservatives enjoyed a 25 point lead over the Liberals.
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Trump once again threatened Canada’s independent sovereignty on the eve of the election, describing the border between the two nations as an “artificially drawn line from many years ago”. In a Truth Social post, the US president urged Canada to become the 51st state of the US, claiming it would bring tax cuts, and increased military power.
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Poilievre responded to Trump’s threat by urging him to “stay out of our election”. “Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state,” the Conservative leader posted on X.
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Carney, also in an apparent reference to Trump, said “this is Canada – and we decide what happens here.” In a video posted on X, the Liberal leader referred to a “crisis” in the US and reminded voters of the threat to Canada’s economy posed by Trump’s tariffs.
Key events
New Democratic party leader Jagmeet Singh has also responded to Donald Trump’s comments this morning, after the US president once again threatened Canada’s independent sovereignty.
“I hear Trump has something to say about our election,” Singh wrote in a post on X. “He doesn’t choose our future. We do.”
He urged voters to “protect what makes Canada, Canada”.
Here are some of the latest images from Canada, where voters have been casting their ballots across the country to decide who will form the next government.
What have the key players promised?
There is little daylight between Liberal leader Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre on issues of Canada’s relationship with the United States.
Both have rejected the idea Canada would ever cede its sovereignty. But while both acknowledge a cost of living crisis and housing unaffordability have left Canadians feeling worse off, they have divergent solutions.
Poilievre has promised to cut regulations, diminish the role and size of government in order to facilitate homebuilding. Carney, in contrast, is leaning government as a key figure in any wide-scale building effort.
Poilievre, a brash populist and seasoned parliamentary “attack dog”, has inspired a fervent response from his supporters, who say he has given a voice to those who feel ignored and mocked by political elites.
The Tory leader has told supporters he will crack down on crime, toughening sentences for the worst offenders in a move that he admits would breach the country’s charter of rights and freedoms – but promising to use an arcane constitutional mechanism that permits him to do so anyway.
Carney has largely run a campaign on his economic and business credentials, tacking the party towards the political centre in an attempt to lure in disaffected voters from both sides of the political aisle.
Conservatives have used his CV in their attacks, alleging he used tax loopholes when chair of the investment firm Brookfield. Carney has also faced criticism from the Conservatives for adopting their own policy proposals, including removing a controversial carbon tax.
Who are the main candidates?
Five political parties were represented in parliament before the election was called:
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Liberal party, led by Mark Carney
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Conservative party, led by Pierre Poilievre
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Bloc Québécois, led by Yves-François Blanchet
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New Democratic party, led by Jagmeet Singh
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Green party, led by Elizabeth May
But this election is essentially a two-man race between Carney, the current prime minister, and Pollievre.
Carney, 60, is the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. He became prime minister, replacing Justin Trudeau, after winning the race to lead the country’s federal Liberal party last month.
Poilievre, 45, has taken his Conservative party from the conventional right to the populist flank. He has been compared to Donald Trump, promising to put Canada first by rebuilding the military and by taking back control of Canada’s borders.
Who is eligible to vote?
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Canadian citizens who are at least 18 years old are eligible to vote today
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Voters must vote at their assigned polling station. To find out where they can vote, they can check their voter information card
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Voters must be registered. Those who are not registered can register at their polling station when they go to vote.
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Voters must prove their identity and address – here are three options to do so
How does Canada’s federal election system work?
Canada’s federal election is really 343 separate elections across the country held simultaneously.
Those parliamentary elections in Canada are normally held every four years and under federal law, an election is required by October 2025 at the latest.
Using a parliamentary system stems from the British or Westminster tradition, the party with the most seats typically forms government.
If either the Liberals or the Conservatives win 172 or more seats, they will have a majority government. Anything less than that and they will be required to work with other parties to pass legislation.
Kate McCusker
The unfailing politeness of Canadians is a national character trait recognised the world over, but expats living in the UK who were readying their postal ballots for the elections were in no mood for niceties.
“If you mess with Canadians, we’ll hit back,” said Sarah Helppi, a 44-year-old Toronto native turned Londoner who spoke to the Guardian as she posted her ballot for what she called the most important Canadian vote in her lifetime.
For Helppi, hitting back against Donald Trump’s import tariffs and threats to annex what he has derisively called the “51st state” meant casting a postal vote in Canada for the first time in the 12 years she has lived in the UK.
“I feel united with the Canadian people in trying to find their way out of this,” she said.
We want someone to make the hard decisions about how to re-engineer the economy away from the US, and to me that person is [Mark] Carney.
“I think it’s quite clear that it’s going to be between Carney and [Pierre] Poilievre this time around,” said Nathalie Cook, a 29-year-old primary school teacher from Ottawa living in London. “It definitely feels like the most important election I’ve ever voted in.”
Some voters in Windsor, Ontario, are being redirected to a new polling location after a fire forced the shutdown of a recreation centre that was serving as a federal election polling station.
Fire crews were called to WFCU Centre earlier on Monday and people inside were evacuated, Windsor fire and rescue services said. The fire has since been brought under control.
Election officials have redirected Windsor-Tecumseh-Lakeshore voters to St Joseph’s high school nearby.
Elections Canada is urging voters who plan to head to the polls after work or around dinner time to consider going a little earlier or later.
Voters who have a flexible schedule should consider heading to the polling station before lunch or early in the afternoon when polls are typically less busy, it says.
The Bloc Québécois leader, Yves-François Blanchet, has been pictured casting his vote in Chambly, Quebec.
Blanchet said he expected close battles in Quebec and that it would be “a very interesting evening for people who like politics as much as others like golf or football.”
Polls show Bloc Québécois in second place in Quebec with 28% support, after the Liberals at 42% support, according to CTV.
Summary of the day so far
Canadians across the country are heading to the polls to cast their votes to decide who will form the next government. The two clear frontrunners are the Liberal party, led by Mark Carney, and the Conservative party, led by Pierre Poilievre. Here’s a recap of the latest developments:
Polls have opened nationwide with the last polls expected to close at 10pm EDT. Preliminary results are likely to come in tonight or early Tuesday morning.
-
A record 7.3 million people had already cast their ballots in advance polls before election day, according to Elections Canada. Canada has 28.9 million eligible voters.
-
The Liberals are the “clear frontrunners” of this election with a 83% chance of victory, according to Canada Sports Betting. The Conservative party is still trailing behind with a 23% chance of winning, it says.
-
Donald Trump’s aggressive posture towards Canada has scrambled the stakes of the election. Until February, the Conservatives enjoyed a 25 point lead over the Liberals.
-
Trump once again threatened Canada’s independent sovereignty on the eve of the election, describing the border between the two nations as an “artificially drawn line from many years ago”. In a Truth Social post, the US president urged Canada to become the 51st state of the US, claiming it would bring tax cuts, and increased military power.
-
Poilievre responded to Trump’s threat by urging him to “stay out of our election”. “Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state,” the Conservative leader posted on X.
-
Carney, also in an apparent reference to Trump, said “this is Canada – and we decide what happens here.” In a video posted on X, the Liberal leader referred to a “crisis” in the US and reminded voters of the threat to Canada’s economy posed by Trump’s tariffs.
Canada Sports Betting, a top resource for Canadian betting, has been updated to show the Liberals as the “clear frontrunners” of this election. According to these odds, Liberals have an 83% chance of victory.
While the Liberals have seen a slight decline and Conservatives have seen a slight boost in odds in the days leading up to the election, the Conservative party is still trailing behind with a 23% chance of winning, according to the company.
In a short video posted on X, prime minister Mark Carney referred to a “crisis” in the US and reminded voters of the threat to Canada’s economy posed by Trump’s tariffs.
Carney says in the video: “I know people are anxious right now. The crisis in the United States doesn’t stop at their borders.
“They can become divided and weak. But this is Canada and we decided what happens here. Let’s choose to be united and strong – Canada strong.”
Conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre, along with his wife, Anaida Poilievre, have cast their votes at an Ottawa polling station in Ontario, Canada.
Polls are now officially open across Canada. Here are a few images of what voting day looks like.
Both liberal prime minister Mark Carney and conservative Pierre Poilievre are still doing some last minute campaigning on social media.
Carney posted on X: “It’s time, Canada. Vote #CanadaStrong” along with a campaign video.
Poilievre posted on X: “It’s simple: No vote, no change. Bring friends, family and coworkers out to VOTE for Change. Vote Conservative.”
Conservative Pierre Poilievre tells Trump ‘stay out of our election’
Conservative Pierre Poilievre posted on X: “President Trump, stay out of our election. The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box.
“Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state.
“Today Canadians can vote for change so we can strengthen our country, stand on our own two feet and stand up to America from a position of strength.”
This post appears to be a response to Trump’s earlier post on Truth Social, where he urged Canadians to make their country the 51st US state. Canada’s sovereignty is considered to be on the ballot thanks to Trump, and Poilievre is likely seeking to distance himself from the controversial US president whom he has praised in the past.
Here are some pictures of voters lining up outside a polling station in Toronto, Ontario this morning as Canada votes in the federal election.
